Well here I go again.
by Darby Weaver
I just came back from Cisco Live 2009. Had a great time attended some techtorials and breakout technical sessions. Met some awesome people. Lots of energy.
Here's the State of the CCIE Union.
It appears there is not enough to go around and pools of endless CCIE Candidates are drying up (at least of the paying variety).
It seems that the Cisco CCIE 360 Program was designed to retain the value of the program and it has its merits. However a lot of very respected trainers are joining the program for one or more reasons:
- It is better (eye of the beholder).
- It allows the trainers to accept Cisco Learning Credits (in a very very tough market).
- It is going to allow for a much improved product.
Umm... That's a multiple choice question.
So if a lot of trainers are being "corraled" by Cisco into joining the program as at least some have suggested (as in join us or die... well more like join us or decertify) isn't this a little odd way to bring some of the best trainers in the industry into the Cisco CCIE 360 Program?
I think so, but hey I'm not a trainer nor a CCIE as of yet and so it's not really my concern.
My concern is innovative and quality products.
From what I gather I'm not sure this is going to happen from the Cisco CCIE 360 Program immediately or possibly anytime soon despite having some 30 highly experienced CCIE Trainers (some of whom are content developers).
Let's see....
There's a mean rumor going around that are only two main games left in town: Cisco CCIE 360 Program and IPExpert. And IPExpert is diversifying into other certifications...
What? Only 2!!! What about InternetworkExpert?
Apparently some think InternetworkExpert may be in dire straights (Truth or Dare) and since Brian Dennis may no longer be at the head of the table (another rumor from an informed source) then InternetworkExpert as we know it may not exist much longer and may not hold a top spot either for long.
In any event the CCIE Training is venue is bleeding badly. Very badly.
I saw a lot of stuff while in San Franscisco. I saw a little hustle and jive. I saw fear. I saw anger. I saw despair. And out of it all I might have seen a glint of opportunity but you'll have to shake me to see where I saw that aspect of the game.
Here's the problem as I see it:
- The economy. Well not quite true since in times likes these trainers and education in general are safe bets... unless...
- Every trainer sells and makes all their "intellectual property" full available "electronically.
- Ouch! I said it. Piracy and Sharing is about to be the death of the program. Classes are still a go, but electronic revenues are getting hit hard apparently and the biggest retailers are getting hit the hardest (like say... InternetworkExpert for example).
- One CCIE Vendor/Trainer shared with me a very sad fact... Exactly 4 sales of a product in exactly 4 months. That's it guys. It is now that bad and LockLizard is not good enough to protect the family jewels.
But... but... Darby... I'm from a poor country and I cannot afford a workbook a video on demand, or anything else... Yep I hear these all the time. Ouch! Apparently you won't have to worry as soon there won't be anyone left producing them and you will have to rely on Cisco Press and the Cisco CCO for your training. The CCIE Vendors/Trainers may soon be extinct.
The Golden Age of CCIE Training is almost waning entirely and may soon be gone in the advent of several things:
- Mass media - electronic media.
- High download speeds - 30GB is downloadable quite quickly.
- Rapidshare and others are the death of this industry - sorry it is true.
- Sell once and a team get together for a "Group-Buy" and Share many - Unless they are waiting to get it for F-R-E-E... (see an example below).
- Since everything "intellectually valuable" has been shared and re-shared, that leaves only classroom revenues and these dry up since many people either cheat the exam itself or refuse to buy or take classes when this stuff is readily available via video and instant download.
So the guys who started the thing with Video on Demand may be among the first victims of their own success.
Hell one copy sold to a country with no intellectual copyright law or no regard for it, means one copy sold to exactly 1 billion souls (well not quite - but you get the point - but you lose the buck!).
Here is an example taken this week from an underground forum:
- Any one got the NMC BGP kindly share.
- Please share it friends.
- yes men share it It is so important
- Any update ??
- need this, please share if you have or locate! BGP for me!
- if many people are interested...we can buy it directly from NMC....anyone interested.....comes for $349...
- JUST wait men , xxx offer them for free now. only contributors can get them now and they will available for all after 4 weeks. hope one of the contributors can share them before the month
- no problem, we can wait 4 weeks
See how that works. NMC will sell 1 copy for those 100 who want this particular product and then it will sell no more.
Done!
And NMC/Cisco can protect it to their heart's content and it will still get raped and pillaged within 24 hours or less of the sale. It's like that.
So the era of our vendors supplying electronic copies of anything just died.
R.I.P. July 11th 2009.
Unless some of them are still making some sort of profit - which is dwindling fast.
Even Cisco Press is in trouble since most books are available for free mostly anywhere on the net.
The big question on the underground today is: Where's Narbik's 2.0 Workbook?
Only 1 Trainer's labs/products have survived this: That German guy... who trains in Denver.
Why?
Easy:
Paper and Watermark. If he used the red paper then he'd be even one more layer secure from this kind of thing.
However, he's pretty secure and his stuff is not everywhere. I think he only takes cash or wire transfer aka cash. But he's not worried about his stuff being pirated.
Some vendor's stuff is literally everywhere and trying to stop 30-40,000 determined techies is really tough for anyone or um... 20 times those numbers.
Hey - Don't kill the messenger. I'm just telling you that with all the E-CCIE available nowadays - class sizes are going to continue to shrink even though demand is growing out of control.
It is exponential.
The lab is changing right... now.
It's the only hope you guys have of maintaining your career - or at least your salary or profit margins.
Hey!!!
1 lab is worth $1000.00 per student or even $2,000.00 if it is not available for free.
What can I tell you that I've not already said?
This may be the last year you really have an opportunity to save the full-time career as a CCIE Trainer.
Who knows?
Just letting you know how fast your brains are leaking all over the Internet. Pretty fast actually.
By the time you've read this I can't tell you how many GB or even TB have been downloaded.... Can you say lost revenues?
Honestly I even heard some producers of materials willing to sell the stuff for $20.00 a copy - imagine that - now if you pay $500 or $1000.00 for a copy of a product and a vendor is in that tough a situation... Think about it. and then there is the CCIE 5x selling his own workbooks for $20-30.00 each on ebay.
Ouch!
It is really getting bad now guys.
A bright light come October 18th. The troubleshooting section of the lab.
You'd better change your ways and your strategies... use stone carvings if you have to. It's your work or it’s not your work anymore - you choose.
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